Managed services
The leak
Three regions forecast three different ways, so the roll-up was a negotiation and the board stopped believing the commit number.
The seam
Between stage definitions and the forecast category — a stage meant a different thing in each region and nothing enforced exit criteria.
What the operators did
- Collapsed three stage models into one with written exit criteria per stage.
- Separated the forecast category from the stage so commit is a judgement, not a side-effect.
- Killed 14 of 19 dashboards and rebuilt the two the leadership team actually reads.
- Instituted a weekly deal inspection with the same four questions every week.
Forecast accuracy
Absolute variance between week-three commit and closed-won at quarter end, same read point each cycle.
Baseline
±34%
After
±11%
Delta
−23 pts of variance
Stage-2 data completeness
Opportunities at stage 2+ carrying all six required fields.
Baseline
52%
After
94%
Delta
+42 pts
Cycle time, core segment
Median qualified-to-closed, segment-held so a mix shift can't flatter the number.
Baseline
94 days
After
81 days
Delta
−13 days
What we did not claim
Two enterprise deals closed early in the final quarter. We reported cycle time with and without them; the delta above is the figure excluding both.
What stayed behind
The stage model, the inspection agenda and the two dashboards are owned by the regional sales operations leads.